A Research Analyst at Coronation Research, Gbemi Adelokiki, said recent discussions around removing or adjusting levies on telecommunications and petroleum products reflect a broader tension between government revenue requirements and the economic realities facing ordinary Nigerians.
Speaking in an interview With ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Adelokiki said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations on taxation and consumption levies must be understood within the context of Nigeria’s ongoing inflation and cost-of-living challenges.
Explaining the conditions attached to International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations on fiscal reforms, she said policy decisions must strike a balance between revenue generation objectives and the need to protect vulnerable households.
“The truth is there are two major things that they indicated which was not fully highlighted. The IMF said it was meant to be for the medium term, more like a short-term measure, and they also gave a caveat that it should only be considered if the government can support vulnerable people,” she said.
She added that the IMF’s assessment reflected Nigeria’s ongoing inflation challenges, with key cost pressures still weighing heavily on households.
“The IMF recognises that we are still facing inflationary pressures. Nigerians continue to struggle with the rising costs of food, transport, fuel, and electricity. They also advised that there should be an effective transfer system to support vulnerable citizens,” she stated.
Describing the situation as a policy “catch-22,” she observed:
“Governments often face the difficult task of raising revenue while avoiding additional burdens on essential consumption items.”
She maintained that implementing such measures during periods of high inflation could worsen public hardship, warning that the timing of the policy could deepen economic pressure on citizens.
‘It would be unfair to bring in these changes now because of what is currently going on in the economy,’ she said
On the telecoms sector, Adelokiki said recent tariff increases should be viewed in the context of long-term underinvestment and rising operational costs, arguing that the industry remains in a recovery phase rather than a period of excess pricing.
“Over the last 10 to 15 years, there has been no significant tariff adjustment. Investors would naturally see that as stagnation,” she explained.
She added that while the sector has begun to recover, persistent challenges such as infrastructure deficits, vandalism, and insecurity continue to affect service delivery and profitability.
“For example, if you look at the sector closely, you will see that although there are signs of recovery and progress in some areas, issues such as inadequate infrastructure, vandalism of critical facilities, and insecurity continue to hinder efficient service delivery and business performance. Even when companies invest heavily in infrastructure, incidents like fibre cuts and vandalism can quickly erase those gains. These challenges are not something operators can resolve on their own,” she noted.
On concerns about the separation of mobile money businesses from telecom operations and its implications for valuation ahead of broader sector reforms, Adelokiki said the move is aimed at improving valuation and allowing fintech segments to grow independently.
“Well, the mobile money businesses and telecom operations you mentioned are structured in a way that requires clearer valuation and operational focus. If you keep them under one umbrella, it can limit transparency and restrict growth potential. So, separating them allows each segment to operate within its own regulatory and market framework, and that should not be an issue.”
On telecom stocks and investment, she said:
“Telecom stocks are about stability. You are looking at steady growth, dividends and long-term value, not overnight returns,” she said.
Adelokiki maintained that improvements in Nigeria’s telecom sector and broader economic environment lie in coordinated action from government, regulators, investors and other stakeholders, rather than industry players alone, emphasising that sustained progress depends on collective responsibility across all key actors.
Goodness Anunobi
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