Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, has cautioned against what he described as unrealistic projections about Nigeria becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030, warning that without proper policies and inflation control, the target will remain a mirage.
Speaking during a discussion on ARISE NEWS on Thursday regarding Nigeria’s 2025 half-year economic update, Adebajo stressed that while the country has the potential to cross the trillion-dollar mark, persistent structural challenges and weak policy implementation make such growth unattainable under current conditions.
“We said Nigeria already has a potential of a $1 trillion economy. $1 trillion economy is a mirage. We shouldn’t go there again. We should stop talking about it,” Adebajo declared. “I believe Nigeria is already more than a $1 trillion economy, but that is the potential of the economy. If you do not have your policies in place, you cannot reach that $1 trillion economy.”
He explained that decades of research show Nigeria can only sustain GDP growth of 8 to 10 per cent if inflation is kept below 12 per cent.
“If you take a look at the research we’ve done over 30 years in Nigeria, GDP growth of 8 to 10 percent only happens when inflation is 12 percent or lower. It’s a statistics for Nigeria. So if you cannot get inflation to 12 percent on a real basis, you cannot achieve that growth,” he said, urging the Central Bank of Nigeria to become more aggressive in targeting inflation and to cut interest rates by the fourth quarter of 2025.
Adebajo also pointed out that reforms alone cannot drive growth. “Reforms on themselves cannot be the solution or answer to growing the economy,” he noted.
He called for a shift towards microeconomic solutions such as job creation and stronger social intervention programmes that would give ordinary citizens some reprieve before long-term gains in the economy are realised.
“There has to now be a human face,” Adebajo emphasised, urging the government to balance reforms with policies that directly improve the welfare of Nigerians.
Melissa Enoch
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