The Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Professor Tukur Mohammed-Baba, has described the brewing crisis within the emerging political coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as unsurprising and characteristic of Nigeria’s political landscape, warning that the coalition risks failure if it continues to focus on personalities rather than presenting a clear ideological and policy-driven agenda.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, Professor Mohammed-Baba said the turbulence rocking the coalition, as well as allegations of infiltration by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), were in line with Nigeria’s political history.
“Things are still unfolding. We are not sure. This is just the beginning. There is a lot more to come, but it’s not surprising given the nature of our politics and the nature of the persons and personalities allegedly behind the coalition. This is expected,” he said.
He noted that Nigeria’s political history has been marked by shifting alliances and fragile coalitions, citing examples from the First Republic to more recent attempts in 2011, 2015, and 2023.
“Coalitions are not new in our country. Some have succeeded, others have failed. For the last few months, some of the key promoters of this coalition have been jumping from one party to another. In fact, if you take any of the individuals prominent in the coalition, you will see they have moved from parties to parties over the last maybe 16 years. So it’s not surprising,” he remarked.
The ACF spokesman also addressed allegations that the APC is actively working to destabilise the coalition from within by coercing members to abandon it, particularly in the northeast and northwest regions.
“If you are talking of this coercion to get people to either drop their ambitions or go to the APC, it’s been going on in various forms. For the last year, people have been coerced to leave their parties. That is part of it,” he said. “I have spoken to people who said the party is dead on arrival because the ruling party will pull out all the stops to ensure that disarray and conflict engulf the new coalition.”
However, he added that some supporters of the coalition remain determined to press on despite the challenges: “I have also spoken to others who are very confident, people who are pro-coalition. They are just as determined to ensure that they weather the storms. So you and I are probably jumping the gun. Things are unfolding.”
Professor Mohammed-Baba warned that the coalition’s focus on political figures rather than substantive policy proposals was disappointing and risked alienating voters.
“My reading for now, given the little evidence we have from the coalition, is that to me personally it’s a bit of a disappointment. I have not seen a coherent statement of what they intend to do. The emphasis on personalities—who is going to be president, who will be senate president or secretary to the federal government—gives me a sense of déjà vu. We are going back to square one,” he stated.
“If it is all about personalities, I think they are dead on arrival. If they can present a coherent policy programme and tell us how to restore national institutions, revitalise the economy, and promote inclusion, then maybe they can stand. But for now, I don’t see anything.”
He lamented the absence of ideological clarity in Nigeria’s political parties: “Probably what is disappointing is that up to now we are talking of personalities. Nobody is talking of ideology. All the parties in Nigeria, nearly all of them, maybe one or two exceptions, share the same ideology: liberal democracy and neoliberal economic policies. There isn’t much difference.”
On the divisive debate over the region from which a presidential candidate should emerge, Professor Mohammed-Baba rejected the idea that regional origins should matter, calling instead for a focus on leadership quality and national development.
“I don’t care where the candidate comes from. We are wasting too much time and energy not allowing democracy to take root by insisting that a presidential candidate must come from one region or another. I would prefer that we go for the very best who has an agenda for a united, strong, economically viable Nigeria,” he said.
He further argued: “All this idea of where the president should come from is a distraction because then we don’t look for the ingredients of good leadership. The whole thing begins and ends with where the presidential candidate comes from, and I think the nation’s time is being wasted by these policies.”
Reflecting on past disappointments, he added: “In the last eight years, this regional approach has yielded nothing but bitter disappointment. We insisted on people, they came in, and it was a disappointment. In 2015, there was mass appeal. Within six months, it became clear it was a monumental mistake, and that carried on until 2023.”
Pressed to state a preference on where the candidate should come from, he firmly maintained his idealistic stance: “If you want my personal opinion, you are not getting it short and simple. I live on idealism, and idealism is hope. My pigeonhole is Nigeria. It’s not about me; it’s about the nation.”
He added: “The persons who will decide are the electorate. I am only one of maybe 100 million. I cannot impose my view.”
Responding to whether the Arewa Consultative Forum aligns with the coalition, Professor Mohammed-Baba made clear that he was speaking in his personal capacity and not for the ACF.
“I’m not speaking for the Arewa Consultative Forum. I’m speaking for myself as an analyst. The ACF has always been a nonpartisan organisation, a sociocultural group of persons. We have not met or taken any decision on this,” he clarified.
“The ACF is not likely to endorse any political tendency because it is an amalgamation of many interests. Historically, we have never been clearly for any party. We are for Nigeria and for policies that will improve the country.”
He noted that prior to the 2023 elections, the ACF provided a platform for all major political parties, including then-candidate Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi, to present their visions for Nigeria. “The ACF will not and does not take a definite position for or against anybody,” he said. “We are for or against policies that will be put on the ground.”
Boluwatife Enome
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